Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 48.47%. A win for UD Oliveirense had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.89%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest UD Oliveirense win was 2-1 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
-0.92) 
0.34) 
