Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
0.31) 
-0.61) 
