Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penafiel win with a probability of 46.19%. A win for Vitoria de Setubal had a probability of 28.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penafiel win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Vitoria de Setubal win was 0-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%).
0.03) 
-0.04) 
