Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Kiev win with a probability of 53.05%. A win for Mariupol had a probability of 23.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Kiev win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.55%) and 0-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Mariupol win was 2-1 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Dynamo Kiev in this match.