Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.64%. A win for Miramar Misiones had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.46%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Miramar Misiones win was 0-1 (12.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.05) 
