Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.73%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Miramar Misiones had a probability of 23.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.16%) and 1-2 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%), while for a Miramar Misiones win it was 1-0 (8.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
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