SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 40.24%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 29.89% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.12%) and 1-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (11.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Racing de Montevideo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
29.89% ( 0.05) | 29.87% ( -0.02) | 40.24% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 41.59% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.67% ( 0.06) | 65.33% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.88% ( 0.04) | 84.12% ( -0.05) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.03% ( 0.08) | 38.97% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.3% ( 0.07) | 75.69% ( -0.08) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.14% ( 0.01) | 31.86% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.7% ( 0.01) | 68.3% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
| 1-0 @ 11.69% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.31% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.53% Total : 29.88% | 1-1 @ 13.38% 0-0 @ 12.41% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 3.61% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.46% Total : 29.86% | 0-1 @ 14.2% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.12% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 7.65% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.1% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.92% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.38% ( 0)Other @ 2.87% Total : 40.24% |
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