SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.76%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 25.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.26%) and 1-2 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.76%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Nacional |
25.89% ( -0.06) | 27.34% ( 0.7) | 46.76% ( -0.64) |
| Both teams to score 45.87% ( -1.96) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.15% ( -2.5) | 58.85% ( 2.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.64% ( -1.99) | 79.35% ( 1.98) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.33% ( -1.44) | 38.67% ( 1.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.59% ( -1.39) | 75.41% ( 1.39) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.79% ( -1.41) | 25.2% ( 1.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.06% ( -1.99) | 59.93% ( 1.98) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.51) 2-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 4.4% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.15)Other @ 1.53% Total : 25.89% | 1-1 @ 12.76% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.89)2-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.28)Other @ 0.66% Total : 27.34% | 0-1 @ 13.43% ( 0.72) 0-2 @ 9.26% ( 0.13)1-2 @ 8.8% ( -0.23)0-3 @ 4.25% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.21)0-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.39% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.21% Total : 46.76% |
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