Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 42.95%. A win for La Luz had a probability of 30.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest La Luz win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Defensor Sporting in this match.
-0.88) 
1.03) 
