Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.74%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 21.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.97%) and 1-2 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a La Luz win it was 1-0 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
0.43) 
-0.08) 
