SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Fenix |
31.97% ( -0.12) | 28.11% ( -0.17) | 39.92% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 46.9% ( 0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.9% ( 0.57) | 59.1% ( -0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.45% ( 0.44) | 79.55% ( -0.44) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.99% ( 0.22) | 34.01% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.31% ( 0.23) | 70.69% ( -0.23) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.07% ( 0.45) | 28.93% ( -0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.19% ( 0.55) | 64.81% ( -0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.72% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 2.55% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.34% Total : 31.97% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 9.84% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.11% | 0-1 @ 12.2% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 8.16% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 3.13% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.65% Total : 39.92% |
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