SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.27%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 22.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 0-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
49.27% ( -1.99) | 27.99% ( 0.41) | 22.74% ( 1.58) |
| Both teams to score 41.49% ( 0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.98% ( -0.06) | 63.02% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.52% ( -0.04) | 82.48% ( 0.04) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.12% ( -0.96) | 25.88% ( 0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.14% ( -1.32) | 60.86% ( 1.33) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.98% ( 1.61) | 44.02% ( -1.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.86% ( 1.29) | 80.14% ( -1.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 15.4% ( -0.39) 2-0 @ 10.4% ( -0.57)2-1 @ 8.54% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 4.69% ( -0.4)3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.14)4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.92% Total : 49.26% | 1-1 @ 12.63% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 11.39% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.46% Total : 27.99% | 0-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.43) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.32)0-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.34)1-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.95% Total : 22.74% |
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