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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 40.11%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8%) and 1-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 (11.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
30.38% ( 0.45) | 29.51% ( 0.07) | 40.11% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 42.65% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.88% ( -0.12) | 64.11% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.73% ( -0.08) | 83.26% ( 0.08) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.09% ( 0.28) | 37.9% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.32% ( 0.27) | 74.67% ( -0.28) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.69% ( -0.37) | 31.31% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.33% ( -0.43) | 67.66% ( 0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 11.51% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 6.49% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 2.1% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.67% Total : 30.37% | 1-1 @ 13.36% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.86% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 3.77% ( -0)Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.49% | 0-1 @ 13.78% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 8% ( -0.13)1-2 @ 7.76% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.01% Total : 40.11% |
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