SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.72%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (11.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Danubio |
33.38% ( -0.44) | 28.9% ( 0.24) | 37.72% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 45% ( -0.75) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.4% ( -0.89) | 61.6% ( 0.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.56% ( -0.66) | 81.44% ( 0.65) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.67% ( -0.77) | 34.33% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.96% ( -0.83) | 71.03% ( 0.82) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.52% ( -0.34) | 31.47% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.14% ( -0.39) | 67.86% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 11.55% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 6.18% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 2.2% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.29% Total : 33.37% | 1-1 @ 13.35% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.35)2-2 @ 4.13% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.89% | 0-1 @ 12.48% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 7.72% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 7.22% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.95% Total : 37.71% |
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