Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 36.72%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 35.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.