Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (10.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.