Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 53.39%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 20.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.08%) and 1-2 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
