Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
