Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 43.64%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
