Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 47.23%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 26.8% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Fenix win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.