SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.76%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 22.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (9.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Cerro |
49.76% ( 0.18) | 27.51% ( -0.15) | 22.73% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 42.65% ( 0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.48% ( 0.46) | 61.52% ( -0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.62% ( 0.34) | 81.38% ( -0.33) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.03% ( 0.29) | 24.97% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.39% ( 0.4) | 59.61% ( -0.39) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.85% ( 0.24) | 43.16% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.58% ( 0.2) | 79.42% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 14.95% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 10.37% 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.03% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.13% Total : 49.75% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.51% Total : 27.51% | 0-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.02% Total : 22.73% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
