SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.72%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 22.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.69%) and 1-2 (8.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Penarol |
22.01% ( 0.15) | 28.27% ( 0.18) | 49.72% ( -0.33) |
| Both teams to score 40.14% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.64% ( -0.42) | 64.35% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.56% ( -0.3) | 83.44% ( 0.3) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.44% ( -0.09) | 45.56% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.63% ( -0.07) | 81.37% ( 0.07) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.72% ( -0.35) | 26.28% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.6% ( -0.47) | 61.4% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 9.41% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 4.95% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.7% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 1.3% ( -0)3-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.69% Total : 22.01% | 1-1 @ 12.57% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 11.97% ( 0.19)2-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.41% Total : 28.26% | 0-1 @ 15.99% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 10.69% ( -0.05)1-2 @ 8.41% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 4.76% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.25% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.81% Total : 49.71% |
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