SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.34%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 25.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | River Plate |
47.34% ( 0.07) | 27.4% ( 0.05) | 25.26% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 45.23% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.58% ( -0.24) | 59.41% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.21% ( -0.18) | 79.79% ( 0.18) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.82% ( -0.07) | 25.17% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.1% ( -0.1) | 59.9% ( 0.09) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.45% ( -0.24) | 39.54% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.77% ( -0.23) | 76.23% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 13.73% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.04% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.19% Total : 47.34% | 1-1 @ 12.73% 0-0 @ 9.95% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.63% Total : 27.39% | 0-1 @ 9.24% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.42% Total : 25.26% |
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