Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 45.87%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 27.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest Fenix win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
