Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 45.49%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 26.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.17%) and 1-2 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%), while for a Progreso win it was 1-0 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.
