Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 47.27%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Villa Espanola had a probability of 25.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.19%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Villa Espanola win it was 0-1 (8.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.