Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.98%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 27.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.82%) and 1-2 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.9%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.