Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.69%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Rentistas had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.05%) and 1-2 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for a Rentistas win it was 1-0 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.