Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Sud America had a probability of 30.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.11%) and 1-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Sud America win was 1-0 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
