Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 57.81%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 18.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.5%) and 1-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.