Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 40.83%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
