Women's Super League | Gameweek 3
Sep 25, 2022 at 4pm UK
Wheatsheaf Park
Kirby (42'), Naevdal Mjelde (78' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-0)
We said: Chelsea Women 2-1 Manchester City Women
The two sides met on four occasions last season, including in the 2022 FA Cup final which Chelsea won on penalties, and after winning their last three home WSL games against Man City, we think that the Blues will prevail on Sunday.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea Women win with a probability of 44.12%. A win for Manchester City Women had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.61%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Manchester City Women win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea Women would win this match.
| Result |
| Chelsea Women | Draw | Manchester City Women |
44.12% ( 0.06) | 23.63% ( -0.01) | 32.26% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 61.62% ( 0.01) |
| 59.84% ( 0.02) | 40.16% ( -0.02) |
| 37.47% ( 0.02) | 62.53% ( -0.02) |
| 81.48% ( 0.03) | 18.52% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.24% ( 0.05) | 49.76% ( -0.05) |
| Manchester City Women Goals |
| 75.63% ( -0.02) | 24.37% ( 0.02) |
