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World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
Oct 14, 2021 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
PN

Canada
4 - 1
Panama

Murillo (28' og.), Davies (66'), Buchanan (71'), David (78')
Brym (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Blackburn (5')
Davis (26'), Murillo (31'), Cooper (54'), Godoy (90+5')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 60.03%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Panama had a probability of 17.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Panama win it was 0-1 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Canada would win this match.

Result
CanadaDrawPanama
60.03%22.37%17.6%
Both teams to score 49.5%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.45%48.55%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.33%70.68%
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.24%15.77%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.11%44.89%
Panama Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.77%41.24%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.24%77.77%
Score Analysis
    Canada 60.02%
    Panama 17.6%
    Draw 22.36%
CanadaDrawPanama
1-0 @ 12%
2-0 @ 11.09%
2-1 @ 9.83%
3-0 @ 6.83%
3-1 @ 6.05%
4-0 @ 3.16%
4-1 @ 2.8%
3-2 @ 2.68%
4-2 @ 1.24%
5-0 @ 1.17%
5-1 @ 1.03%
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 60.02%
1-1 @ 10.63%
0-0 @ 6.5%
2-2 @ 4.35%
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 22.36%
0-1 @ 5.76%
1-2 @ 4.71%
0-2 @ 2.55%
1-3 @ 1.39%
2-3 @ 1.29%
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 17.6%

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