Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 42.83%. A win for Gibraltar had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Gibraltar win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Latvia would win this match.