SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iraq | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Indonesia | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indonesia win with a probability of 52.91%. A win for Philippines had a probability of 23.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Indonesia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.77%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Philippines win was 0-1 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Indonesia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Indonesia | Draw | Philippines |
52.91% ( 0) | 23.37% ( -0) | 23.71% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 55.64% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.98% ( -0.01) | 45.01% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.63% ( -0.01) | 67.36% ( 0.01) |
| Indonesia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.01% ( -0) | 16.98% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.9% ( -0) | 47.1% ( -0) |
| Philippines Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.02% ( -0.01) | 32.98% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.43% ( -0.02) | 69.56% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Indonesia | Draw | Philippines |
| 1-0 @ 9.93% ( 0) 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.8% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.77% 3-0 @ 5.2% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.2% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.56% 4-0 @ 2.31% 4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.91% Other @ 3.05% Total : 52.91% | 1-1 @ 11.01% 0-0 @ 5.6% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.37% | 0-1 @ 6.21% 1-2 @ 6.11% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.45% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.26% ( -0)2-3 @ 2% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.27% ( -0)Other @ 2.41% Total : 23.71% |
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