SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Philippines had a probability of 30.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Philippines win was 1-0 (10.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iraq would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philippines | Draw | Iraq |
30.63% ( -0.02) | 27.65% ( 0) | 41.72% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.76% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.2% ( -0.01) | 57.8% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.47% ( -0) | 78.53% ( 0) |
| Philippines Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.71% ( -0.02) | 34.3% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29% ( -0.02) | 71% ( 0.02) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.69% ( 0) | 27.31% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.25% ( 0.01) | 62.75% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Philippines | Draw | Iraq |
| 1-0 @ 10.02% 2-1 @ 6.96% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.36% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.48% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.91% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0)Other @ 2.27% Total : 30.63% | 1-1 @ 13% 0-0 @ 9.37% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.52% ( -0)Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.64% | 0-1 @ 12.15% 1-2 @ 8.44% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.89% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.65% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.41% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.96% 1-4 @ 1.19% 0-4 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 41.71% |
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