While Iraq deserve respect for only losing twice in six matches in the third round, we simply cannot back against Iran. Defensively, they look a cut above the rest, and a professional performance will get the job done on Thursday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 63.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Iraq had a probability of 12.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.99%) and 2-1 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.82%), while for a Iraq win it was 0-1 (6.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 18.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Iran in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Iran.
