SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 53.38%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Tahiti had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Tahiti win it was 0-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New Zealand | Draw | Tahiti |
53.38% ( -0.08) | 25.46% ( 0.13) | 21.16% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 46.17% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.03% ( -0.54) | 55.96% ( 0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.94% ( -0.44) | 77.06% ( 0.44) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79% ( -0.25) | 21% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.22% ( -0.39) | 53.77% ( 0.39) |
| Tahiti Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.44% ( -0.37) | 41.56% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.95% ( -0.32) | 78.05% ( 0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| New Zealand | Draw | Tahiti |
| 1-0 @ 13.62% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 9.33% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.53% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.86% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.89% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.23% Total : 53.37% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.68% Total : 25.45% | 0-1 @ 7.66% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.36% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.16% Total : 21.16% |
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