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World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Oct 12, 2021 at 6pm UK
 
CN

Saudi Arabia
3 - 2
China

Al Naji (15', 38'), Albirakan (72')
Al-Malki (87')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Guofu (46'), Xi (87')
Li (87')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 40.51%. A win for China had a probability of 36.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.34%) and 2-0 (5.36%). The likeliest China win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saudi Arabia would win this match.

Result
Saudi ArabiaDrawChina
40.51%23.06%36.43%
Both teams to score 64.98%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.72%36.28%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.6%58.41%
Saudi Arabia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.55%18.45%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.36%49.64%
China Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.68%20.33%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.29%52.71%
Score Analysis
    Saudi Arabia 40.51%
    China 36.43%
    Draw 23.06%
Saudi ArabiaDrawChina
2-1 @ 8.53%
1-0 @ 6.34%
2-0 @ 5.36%
3-1 @ 4.81%
3-2 @ 3.83%
3-0 @ 3.02%
4-1 @ 2.03%
4-2 @ 1.62%
4-0 @ 1.28%
Other @ 3.7%
Total : 40.51%
1-1 @ 10.09%
2-2 @ 6.8%
0-0 @ 3.75%
3-3 @ 2.03%
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 23.06%
1-2 @ 8.05%
0-1 @ 5.98%
0-2 @ 4.76%
1-3 @ 4.27%
2-3 @ 3.61%
0-3 @ 2.53%
1-4 @ 1.7%
2-4 @ 1.44%
0-4 @ 1.01%
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 36.43%

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