Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Samoa win with a probability of 52.41%. A win for Vanuatu had a probability of 24.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Samoa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Vanuatu win was 2-1 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.