Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Dusseldorf win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 34.54% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortuna Dusseldorf would win this match.
