Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Ingolstadt 04 win with a probability of 36.81%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 34.39% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Ingolstadt 04 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 0-1 (11.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Ingolstadt 04 would win this match.
