Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 52.09%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 22.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 0-1 (7.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.
