Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 45.98%. A win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 31.01% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Greuther Furth win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
-0.06) 
0.08) 
