Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Paderborn win with a probability of 42.23%. A win for Hamburger SV had a probability of 34.82% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a SC Paderborn win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.43%) and 2-0 (5.58%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win was 1-2 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
3.19) 
-0.56) 
