Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 54.04%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 22.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 2-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 0-1 (6.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
0.07) 
-0.06) 
