Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Paderborn win with a probability of 38.93%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 38% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SC Paderborn win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.19%) and 0-2 (5.12%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.18) 
