Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 39.12%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 38.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.75%) and 2-0 (4.91%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
