Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 55.84%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Heidenheim had a probability of 21.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.66%) and 2-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.51%), while for a Heidenheim win it was 1-2 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
