SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 49.15%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 26.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Honka would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Honka | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
49.15% ( 0.51) | 24.69% ( 0.1) | 26.16% ( -0.61) |
| Both teams to score 53.89% ( -0.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.48% ( -0.89) | 48.52% ( 0.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.35% ( -0.81) | 70.65% ( 0.81) |
| Honka Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.23% ( -0.14) | 19.77% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.18% ( -0.23) | 51.82% ( 0.23) |
| HJK Helsinki Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.17% ( -0.95) | 32.83% ( 0.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.6% ( -1.08) | 69.4% ( 1.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Honka | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
| 1-0 @ 10.52% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.9% Total : 49.15% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.69% | 0-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 6.53% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.49% Total : 26.16% |
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